This question was recently posed to me by a client and after some careful considerations and observations I have the following response:
Homes are generally on the market a little longer, but my last sale (in Goleta over by Stow Park) was on the market for 6 days and overbid $35,000 !! But not as many homes are selling like this compared to 12-24 months ago. It is still a very strong market for houses, especially in Goleta under $1 Million.
The low-end condo market, around $500,000 in SB and Goleta, is stagnating on price, but this is the market segment that typically experiences the slowdown first. It will creep into the single-family home market at the low end and work its way up the price scale. So maybe this is a signal of the coming market.
I really don’t see prices dropping the first part of next year. At worst, if we do start to see a slowing of activity, I think it will show up in longer marketing times, and higher inventory (which I don’t see right now), and no overbidding or competition among buyers. Before the prices drop they need to stop rising and level off, and that does not happen overnight.
Admittedly, California statewide prices are up but sales volumes down slightly. As this occurs more buyers will be priced out of the market. Investors are losing interest with the high prices, as the rate of return on their invested capital drops. Some potential homeowners won’t benefit as much due to the tax law changes. If you add a few other factors that put pressure on housing prices you could see a turnaround, but it’s going to take a few more punches to make that happen. Much higher interest rates? A slowing economy?
To summarize, the real estate market is softening but ever so very slightly I’d say.
Condominiums and Houses Currently for Sale
| Status | Address | Price | Beds | Baths | Sq Ft | DOM |
| Pending | 7602 Hollister Ave 101* | $409,000 | 1 | 1 | 696 | 6 |
| Pending | 7624 Hollister Ave 327* | $448,700 | 1 | 1 | 766 | 42 |
| Active | 452 Linfield Place K* | $450,000 | 1 | 1 | 770 | 5 |
| Active | 7638 Hollister Ave 264* | $519,000 | 2 | 2 | 960 | 5 |
| Active | 7628 Hollister Ave 337* | $525,000 | 2 | 2 | 960 | 85 |
| Pending C | 484 Linfield Pl H* | $525,000 | 2 | 1 | 1066 | 9 |
| Active | 7602 Hollister Ave 302* | $539,500 | 2 | 2 | 960 | 83 |
| Active | 145 Ellwood Station Rd* | $589,000 | 2 | 2.5 | 1166 | 5 |
| Pending | 401 Cannon Green Dr C* | $590,000 | 2 | 2 | 960 | 2 |
| Active | 371 Cannon Green Dr E* | $599,000 | 2 | 2 | 960 | 19 |
| Active | 363 Cannon Green Dr D* | $625,000 | 3 | 3 | 1360 | 47 |
| Pending S | 355 Cannon Green Dr D* | $650,000 | 3 | 3 | 1462 | 16 |
| Pending C | 302 La Salle Rd* | $789,000 | 3 | 3 | 1881 | 6 |
| Active | 7105 Georgetown Rd* | $829,000 | 3 | 2.5 | 1881 | 35 |
| Pending S | 460 Pomona Ct | $910,000 | 5 | 2.5 | 1811 | 7 |
| Pending S | 7318 Greensboro St | $919,000 | 4 | 2 | 1725 | 27 |
*indicates condominium
September is a great month to enjoy the final dog days of summer!
Closed Sales – Condominiums and Houses
| Address | Sold Price | Beds | Baths | Sq Ft | DOM | Sale Date |
| 409 Ellwood Beach Dr C* | $430,000 | 2 | 2 | 1079 | 81 | 06/20/18 |
| 7636 Hollister Ave 360* | $479,000 | 1 | 1 | 870 | 7 | 06/01/18 |
| 539 Mills Way* | $530,000 | 2 | 2 | 1152 | 30 | 05/11/18 |
| 200 Entrance Rd 3* | $535,000 | 2 | 2.5 | 1143 | 54 | 07/27/18 |
| 7626 Hollister Ave 332* | $540,000 | 2 | 2 | 1104 | 18 | 07/11/18 |
| 7634 Hollister Ave 356* | $555,000 | 2 | 2 | 1104 | 42 | 07/27/18 |
| 7013 Marymount Way* | $600,000 | 2 | 1.5 | 942 | 3 | 05/10/18 |
| 7047 Marymount Way* | $605,000 | 2 | 2 | 1054 | 1 | 07/31/18 |
| 7122 Phelps Rd* | $675,000 | 2 | 2 | 1411 | 6 | 06/14/18 |
| 391 Cannon Green Dr G* | $675,000 | 3 | 2.5 | 1462 | 9 | 07/11/18 |
| 450 Pepperdine Ct | $910,000 | 5 | 3.5 | 2568 | 7 | 06/22/18 |
| 447 Pitzer Ct | $925,000 | 4 | 3 | 1714 | 2 | 07/26/18 |
| 7649 Carmel Beach Cir | $938,000 | 5 | 2 | 1725 | 8 | 07/06/18 |
| 7163 Armstrong Rd | $940,000 | 3 | 2 | 2079 | 23 | 06/21/18 |
*indicates condominium
- Median condominium sale price in the Ellwood area (Jan – May 2018): $580,000 (23 sales)
- Median home sale price in the Ellwood area (Jan – May 2018): $925,000 (5 sales)